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Portfolio Commentary – January 2025
Our January 2025 Portfolio Commentary provides an overview of recent market performance, key financial stories, and insights into the performance of our model portfolios.
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October Commentary & Performance Review
The Bank of Canada announced its intent to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged. This decision was initiated on the basis that the Bank is forecasting a slowing of GDP growth to 1.6% in 2020.
September Commentary & Performance Review
Canadian markets continued to show resilience to a global slowdown as the S&P/TSX hit a new record high. At the high, the index was within striking distance of 17,000 points, nearing a threshold that was unexpected at such a late stage in the business cycle.
August Commentary & Performance Review
Investors who were expecting renewed exuberance in the markets after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on July 31st would have been disappointed given the negative monthly return on the S&P 500.
July Commentary & Performance Review
North American markets continued higher following last month’s reaction to the Federal Reserve’s softening tone allowing the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX to hit new highs.
A Tale of Two Markets
Bond markets and stock markets usually move opposite to each other, hence their diversification benefits. Today, they appear to be indicating the same thing by moving strongly upward together. One of them must be wrong. Historically, the smart money is the bond market viewpoint. Yet today, central banks are distorting true risk and value by their market operations. The bond market is likely saying that recession is coming. This leads us to continue our shifts to a more defensive portfolio posture.
June Commentary & Performance Review
A number of positives helped global markets swell during the month, the largest of which was a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve meeting.