By the end of May, the majority of investors believe the worst of the COVID-19 economic shutdown is behind us. Although the stock market is forward-looking and an indicator of investor sentiment, we struggle to reconcile these returns with what we’re monitoring in the data from indicators.
After a severe shock to financial systems in March, global markets rebounded sharply in April. Although the virus continued to spread, some countries saw infection rates begin to peak and now plans are being developed to strategically re-open the global economy.
To combat the damage stemming from skyrocketing unemployment numbers and significantly reduced consumption, many central banks opted to cut interest rates, eased financial conditions to persuade banks to extend loans and reduced the interest rate expenses of businesses and consumers.
One hundred years later, we continue to see the effects of the organization founded in January 1920 which we now know as the United Nations.
Whether assisted by a Santa Clause Rally or the announcement of a Phase 1 trade deal, the S&P 500 finished 2019 up 30% (total return in local currency), an impressive feat for a “late cycle” market. The annual returns were spurred on by low…