Market Pulse

Despite trade tensions, conflict in the Middle East, and rising AI competition abroad, the S&P 500 rose nearly 5% in June. Investors continue to buy on dips, driven by optimism that AI innovation will sustain market growth. In the U.S., unemployment remains low at 4.2%, and JPMorgan’s chief global equity strategist suggests that, under a base-case scenario, a U.S. recession may still be avoided.

However, ongoing trade disputes have led the World Bank to cut its 2025 U.S. growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%. The global outlook was also lowered by 40 basis points, with warnings that the window for a soft landing has closed. Europe faces similar headwinds, with projected growth of just 0.7%, as U.S. tariffs weigh on exports and rising uncertainty dampens business investment.

Tensions in the Middle East triggered sharp fluctuations in oil prices. In June, U.S. airstrikes targeted a nuclear facility in Iran, pushing Brent crude above $81 per barrel. A subsequent ceasefire announcement quickly brought prices back down to $69. Fears persist that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global oil route—raising the risk of higher energy costs worldwide.

In response to President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods, Canadian premiers have strengthened interprovincial trade initiatives. New agreements aim to streamline Direct-to-Consumer alcohol sales and remove employment barriers across provinces, boosting domestic commerce and reducing U.S. reliance.

Canada also agreed to drop its proposed 3% tax on U.S. tech giants earning over $20 million in domestic revenue, in an effort to revive stalled trade talks. President Trump had called the tax a “blatant attack” and threatened further tariffs and a freeze on negotiations. Following Canada’s decision to withdraw the levy, the White House confirmed the resumption of talks and thanked Canada for the concession, stating the tax would have jeopardized any future trade deal.

All data sourced from FACTSET and Bloomberg L.P.
All data is for the reported month and in local currency.

The Ups & Downs

• Cisco Systems (CSCO) rose 9.89% in June, supported by improving orders, AI-driven demand, and stronger enterprise networking performance.

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) gained 9.66% on resilient net interest income, strong capital markets activity, and solid banking fundamentals.

• Procter & Gamble (PG) fell 6.72%, pressured by soft volumes, input cost headwinds, and weaker consumer health demand.

• Waste Management (WM) declined 5.63% amid lower recycling revenue, rising costs, and cautious industrial activity outlook.

All data sourced from FACTSET and SIACharts.
All data is for the reported month and in local currency.

Portfolio Returns

As of June 30th, 2025